After a week that saw the College Football Playoff teams ranked #2, #3, #4, #8, #9, #10, #14, #17 and #25 all lose, I think it's fair to say shakeups are abound.. Here is how I see the College Football Playoff Committee rankings shaping up when they come out this Tuesday. Remember these are projections for the CFP rankings. Not my personal rankings.
#1 Alabama (10-0)
This is obvious.
#2 Ohio State (9-1)
Ohio State won big on the road vs Maryland which wasn't surprising. But they were the only team ranked 2-5 last week that won. So they move up 3 spots from 5 to 2.
#3 Michigan (9-1)
Michigan's hate/hate relationship with Kinnick Stadium and Iowa the last decade continues. The Wolverines suffer their first loss since they played Ohio State last November. It was at night on the road in a tough environment and on a last second field goal. Iowa may just be average at best but I don't see Michigan dropping any worse than #4 this week. Michigan is the only team that can boast 3 top 10 wins this season (Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin). That counts for something.
#4 Clemson (9-1)
Clemson, who has nearly lost twice against weaker opponents already this season (Troy and NC State), finally had their luck run out with a 1pt loss at home to Pittsburgh. I think Clemson only drops 2 spots as they hold the head to head over Louisville and Washington lost as well. I think Michigan jumps them because Michigan hasn't had close games against lesser teams until last night. Clemson has had 3 and all were at home.
#5 Louisville (9-1)
Louisville blew their chance at the playoffs with the loss to Clemson. They'll need Clemson to lose again next week to Wake Forest - which is their final conference game - in hopes of making the ACC title game and getting to the playoffs with a win there. There are a few things that could still get them in but for the most part they are a sitting duck that will need a lot of help around them.
#6 Wisconsin (8-2)
Wisconsin, much like Louisville can't do much to move up right now given they've lost to 2 teams in front of them (Ohio State and Michigan). Unlike Louisville though, Wisconsin plays in the opposite division as those 2 conference foes and can easily find themselves in the playoffs if they win out which could include a rematch against either Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship.
#7 Washington (9-1)
Ouch. The Pac-12 was seen as less than stellar and many thought Washington had to run the table going 13-0 to get in.. With Michigan losing though, they may not be totally out as many saw a scenario where a 1 loss Ohio State or Michigan could still get in if Washington lost. But a 2 loss OSU/UM won't get in over a 12-1 Pac-12 champ in Washington.
#8 Penn State (8-2)
Penn State actually has a favorable chance to win the Big Ten East believe it or not. Assuming Penn State wins out against Rutgers and MSU which seems like an easy task, they would need Michigan to lose to Indiana or Ohio State (which is likely) and they will clinch the division with their head to head win over Ohio State.
#9 Oklahoma (8-2)
Oklahoma has found a way to creep back up the rankings after a disappointing start to the season and they have a match-up vs West Virginia this week. It's safe to declare the Big 12 and Oklahoma dead in terms of making the playoffs with the lack of a conference title game but there's a NY6 bowl game perhaps on the line in Morgantown this week.
#10 Colorado (8-2)
The Buffs keep on rolling and have a shot at the Pac-12 South with two ranked opponents coming up to end the year. They even still have an outside chance of crashing the playoffs if they can win out over Washington State, Utah and then Washington in the Pac-12 Championship while teams like Michigan, Ohio State and Louisville are all potentially sitting at home combined with a Penn State or Wisconsin loss that week if they were to meet in the B1G title game.
#11 Oklahoma State (8-2)
Oklahoma State has bounced back well after the early season upset loss on the hail mary that shouldn't have been vs Central Michigan. Their matchup vs Oklahoma in 2 weeks could be a defacto Big 12 Championship game with the winner headed to a NY6 Bowl.
#12 Texas A&M (7-3)
When the first playoff ranking was released most were shocked to see the Aggies inexplicably ranked #4. After 2 straight losses to lesser teams, they will still be inexplicably ranked in the top 12. Making it 2 straight weeks they drop 4 spots.. Maybe by the end of the year they'll be #20 with a 7-5 record.
#13 Utah (8-2)
Utah still has hopes of a conference title and a very slim chance much like Colorado to actually make the playoffs if they were to win the conference if enough chips fall into place along the way.
#14 USC (7-3)
USC was back! Then they weren't... But now they are? USC moves up 6 spots after knocking off #4 Washington in Washington but their head to head loss vs Utah keeps them behind the Utes. After starting 1-3, USC still has a chance to win the division and more and just like Utah and Colorado could find themselves awkwardly walking into the playoff party that they were never invited to.
#15 West Virginia (8-1)
Just like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, WVU's playoff hopes are dead. But they can potentially win the conference and feel good about themselves, I guess.
#16 Auburn (7-3)
Auburn started poorly, got hot and then got upset last week. Their loss sealed the division for Alabama and ended even the slimmest of chance Auburn had at making a run into the SEC Championship game and beyond. They drop 7 spots.
#17 Florida State (7-3)
Their hopes of a ACC title are over now but Florida State just keeps beating the teams they are supposed to which keeps them hanging around the top 20.
#18 Nebraska (8-2)
Nebraska moves up 1 spot from 19 after rebounding after 2 straight losses and getting killed by Ohio State last week. They're effectively eliminated from Big Ten West contention.
#19 Western Michigan (10-0)
The Broncos keep on rowing the boat and making very little progress in the College Football Playoff rankings. They've completely rolled their opponents but look like they won't have a chance to prove themselves unless they finish 13-0 with the MAC title and find themselves in a NY6 game vs a top 10 team.
#20 Boise State (9-1)
I personally would have dropped Boise State completely after their loss to Wyoming. That's the price of doing business in the MWC. The committee kept them at #22, and then Boise State goes and enjoyed their Hawaiian vacation which involved beating Hawaii easily in a football game. Congrats, you move up 2 spots.
#21 Washington State (8-2)
Washington State is 7-0 in the Pac-12 and control their own destiny in the Pac-12 north. So how are they #21? Losing to an FCS team and Boise State to open the season will do that to you. WSU has clawed their way back but it's log jam in this portion of the polls. They can skyrocket themselves with a win over Colorado and then Washington, two top 10 teams. They'd then find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game vs USC, Utah or Colorado..
#22 LSU (6-3)
LSU beat #25 Arkansas on the road. How in the world was Arkansas #25? I don't know.. LSU moves up 2 spots.
#23 Virginia Tech (7-3)
Virginia Tech falls 9 spots after losing by 2 scores at home vs Georgia Tech. Luckily for them, they still control their fate in the ACC Coastal Division.
#24 North Carolina (7-3)
UNC drops 7 spots and remains behind VT since they got destroyed by them at home earlier this year. Losing on the road by 1 point to rival Duke is the only reason they stay ranked in mind. Had they lost by 10 I believe they'd be dropped. Still have an outside shot in the ACC Coastal division, though.
#25 Pittsburgh (6-4)
Pittsburgh is the only new addition this week. I think they have a chance of squeaking in over San Diego State (9-1) because not only did they just go on the road to knock off the #2 team in the country, but they also have another top 10 win on their resume when they beat Penn State early in the season. They too still have a shot - a very very small one - in the ACC Coastal.
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