The Big Ten race is heating up as there are only 3 regular season games to go.
The Big Ten West is shaping up to be the Wild West, with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska all jockeying for position (4-2 in conference) with Iowa and Northwestern just behind (3-3). Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska are all tied but with Wisconsin's head to head win over Nebraska it's the Badgers and Gophers that control their own fate in the west with a potentially division clinching head to head match-up coming up in 3 weeks.
In the East, it's shaping up as expected.. Almost.
Michigan (6-0) and Ohio State (5-1) are neck and neck going down the homestretch towards what is sure to be an epic clash in one of, if not the greatest rivalry game in sports. However, the party is missing a mainstay of the last few years and could also be potentially crashed by an afterthought. Michigan State, the defending Big Ten Champion coming off of a 11-2, College Football Playoff appearance surely expected slight setbacks after losing Connor Cook and many others.. But they came out of the gate 2-0 with what was thought to be a nice road win at Notre Dame.. They were ranked #8 in the country with many wondering how head coach Mark Dantonio keeps doing it.. Since then they've lost 7 in a row, including all 6 conference games, joining Rutgers in the basement of the conference. An unexpected collapse of and an unexpected rise of Penn State (5-1) who with a shocking win over Ohio State a few weeks ago could find themselves winning the East if they win out and Michigan somehow loses twice.
One thing's for sure.. Come Saturday night we'll be another week closer to figuring out how the Big Ten will shake out this year.. But as for this week here's what I expect:
Rutgers (0-6, 2-7) at Michigan State (0-6, 2-7)
Time: Saturday, 12:00pm EST
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Michigan State -14
Two teams desperate for their first conference win of the year.. MSU has lost 7 straight with no light at the end of the tunnel in sight. Rutgers has been very bad.. But have a new starting QB the last couple games that has actually seemed to inject their anemic offense with some sort of life.. Michigan State coming out at home and exercising their 2016 seasons demons en route to a convincing win wouldn't surprise me.. Given their last 7 games, coming out and losing to a pitiful Rutgers team wouldn't surprise me either. So I'm taking the middle ground. Rutgers covers the 14pt spread, but Sparty finally prevails in conference play. Michigan State 27-21.
#10 Penn State (5-1, 7-2) at Indiana (3-3, 5-4)
Time: Saturday, 12:00pm EST
TV: ABC/ESPN 2
Line: Penn State -7
Penn State is in a familiar position.. If it were the 1990's. Penn State finds itself ranked in the top 10 for the first time since the 2009 season. The once perennial contender has been not that the last 7 years at the very least. Back in the top 10 with a chance at the division still alive, Penn State looks to prove they're for real. Their impressive win over a bad Iowa may have done that but Vegas (and myself) still aren't convinced given the measly 7pt line against an average at best IU.. Even if on the road. I really like the Hoosiers to pull the upset.. But they're the Hoosiers. They will find a way to rip their fans hearts out.. Penn State survives 31-28.
Northwestern (3-3, 4-5) at Purdue (1-5, 3-6)
Time: Saturday, 12:00pm EST
TV: Big Ten Network Extra
Line: Northwestern -14
Northwestern gets back on track after playing two great conference teams well (OSU and Wisconsin) back to back and continue their march to the Quick Lane Bowl. Northwestern wins 34-7.
Illinois (2-4, 3-6) at #7 Wisconsin (4-2, 7-2)
Time: Saturday, 3:30pm EST
TV: ESPN 2
Line: Wisconsin -27
Wisconsin has a great defense. That's not a debate. 23 points is the most they have given up in regulation this year and that was to Ohio State. They've only lost to the two best teams in the conference but still have the West division crown well within reach - and maybe even a playoff berth. Illinois has been slightly better than expected under first year coach Lovie Smith.. But they weren't expected to really do anything so take that for what you will. Wisconsin wins easily.. But they don't cover the spread. Wisconsin has only scored over 23pts once this year (they scored 30) so I just don't see them covering a 27pt spread. They will smother Illinois, eat up the game clock and play the smash-mouth Wisconsin football we know on their way to a dominating 24-3 Wisconsin victory.
#5 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at Maryland (2-4, 5-4)
Time: Saturday, 3:30pm EST
TV: ESPN
Line: Ohio State -29
Ohio State rebounded from 3 close games in a row, including a loss to Penn State with a 62-3 thrashing of then #10 Nebraska. Maryland meanwhile has returned from it's trip to cupcake city where they started the season 4-0 and are since 1-4 after losing last week 59-3 to Michigan with a win vs the lowly MSU Spartans crammed in between.. But that win was at home.. as underdogs.. Does Ohio State's inconsistency and inexperienced young core rear it's ugly head again? Does Maryland rise to the occasion in front of their home crowd and shock the world? I say yes, they do shock the world - by covering the spread. OSU may play a bit sloppy this weekend after a big top 10 win but Maryland is not good enough to make them pay the ultimate price. Ohio State rolls 45-17.
Minnesota (4-2, 7-2) at #19 Nebraska (4-2, 7-2)
Time: Saturday, 7:30pm EST
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Nebraska -7
The battle for the "$5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy". Minnesota and Nebraska have a rivalry that predates Nebraska joining the Big Ten by about 110 years. It may surprise some to learn that Minnesota leads the all-time series over the blue blood Nebraska with a record of 31-23-2 (Minnesota was really good up until the 60's when most of these were played. They lost 16 in a row to Nebraska from '63 to 2012). Minnesota has won 4 straight coming into this game with eyes still on the division prize. Nebraska is looking at the same prize albeit they'll need some help with Wisconsin losing another game this year to get there. Will Minnesota rise up and set themselves up for a showdown vs Wisconsin in 3 weeks or will Nebraska regain their composure at home after the beating they took from Ohio State? Minnesota comes into Lincoln with 2 straight wins over the Huskers and the Broken Chair in tow.. And they'll leave with it. Minnesota pulls it off, 24-20.
#3 Michigan (6-0, 9-0) at Iowa (3-3, 5-4)
Time: Saturday, 8:00pm EST
TV: ABC
Line: Michigan -22
Michigan leads the country in average margin of victory. Their defense is the best in all the land statistically and their offense isn't far behind. Michigan's closest game this year was a 14-7 win over Wisconsin but it really wasn't that close. Michigan is on a roll and has yet to stop or even slow for anyone. Iowa, the defending Big Ten West champions who lost a nail biter vs Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship last year after a 12-0 season have found themselves in a similar situation as the Spartans. Disarray. Michigan has had trouble in recent history at Kinnick Stadium. They haven't won there since 2005, losing their last 3. They've lost 4 of their last 5 against Iowa in general. Iowa and Kinnick just seems to spoil Michigan's hopes and dreams such as 2011. But this years Michigan team is different. They got the monkey off their back vs Michigan State in East Lansing. They're ranked the highest they've been since 2006. They're 9-0 for the first time since 2006. They look the part and are positioned to head into Columbus at 11-0 to face off with arch-rival Ohio State with the division on the line.. Iowa City is just another stop on the way to what Michigan hopes is a final stop in Tampa, FL. Everything on paper says Michigan wins big. But this will be a tough environment for Michigan and only the 3rd road start for QB Wilton Speight. Michigan is far too good and Iowa is just far too bad on offense. Michigan wins easily but not overwhelmingly. I think this is a somewhat repeat of the Michigan/Michigan State game where the game is never really in doubt but Iowa grabs a couple garbage time scores to make it look nicer than it was. Michigan wins 41-20.
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